Hungary 2006 – The Land of Confusion
If you ever read my blog you know I always limited the expression of my own opinion and was try to show what Hungarian bloggers are writing about. This (hopefully once time) I’m going to make an exception.
I want to write about four topics: the violence, the lies, the media and the path ahead.
Most of the protests were not as violent as some of the most covered incidents (e.g. the siege of the Hungarian State TV) would imply. One of the largest dailies in Hungary recently had an article that organized criminal activities are behind the continuous violent activities. The first day events might have been spontaneous (or not?), but the upcoming are events are organized and there seem to be little clue about how is the “puppet master” behind all of this. Some seem to recognize the fanatic and bounder fans of certain soccer team and one of the assumptions is that they just seek trouble. I don’t not and for the time being I don’t care whichever theory is true. Why? I think violent actions have to be put to a halt! They are undermining every effort of peaceful protestors. As a matter of fact this could also be the reason for it, I can’t know. So based on pure speculation any side can be behind the violent actions and I have a doubt we will ever know the truth about it. Anyhow these should be stopped.
The Prime Minister in his incriminated May speech had a remark about the upcoming economical restrictions:
“There are going to be protest. It is allowed to protest in front of the Parliament. Sooner or later they will get tired of it and go home.”
Eventually and sadly he is going to be right, but in a slightly different context. I bet that the protestors’ persistence of not giving up is also at least partially powered by these sentences. They want to show that they do not give up. It is almost ironic to see how differently the two major political sides see the reason of the protests. Left wing tries to focus on the restrictions and how inevitable these are, as if this would be the main reason. If that would be the case, people would have been on the streets months ago. Right wing tries to shape our vision to see a country-wide consensus of impeaching of the government which is again a strong shift. The country is divided again and I think one of the most disgusting and worst sins of politics is when they try to force conflicts on citizens just to get a necessary amount of voter support. This is so lame and so unfortunately and tragically typical of the Hungarian political landscape in the past two decades (or it might even date back much-much longer…).
On the other side there is an aspect the Prime Minster desperately tries to move attention away. In his speech he clearly admits that his government under his first term and during the elections was lying . Under normal circumstances if a country leader admits in a recorded “testimony” (even if it was only a close-audience party speech) that he won the elections by lies this should be the Watergate case of Hungary. So it seems for some reason these are not normal times. And yes, probably these are not normal times. What shook me even more are two words I heard this week in the news about the recent meeting of the Prime Minister and the Ambassadors delegated to Hungary. The spokeswoman in the radio interview was referring to one of the PM’s statements, when he was assuring the Ambassadors that he wants a Hungary of “less lies” . I might be wrong, but for me this does not mean a Hungary without lies. Less lies means we will continue to lie, just … ehm… less. And this interpretation really troubles me. I don’t know if there is any proper way to ensure accountability of politicians and to give responsibility in what they are doing. It would be a sad and disturbing statement that in our democracy accountability and responsibility do not exists. So I guess the only logical conclusion can be that at top levels there is none who would have interest in building such a control mechanism and that the will and well being of people (i.e. seen and considered only as voters) is only important until they vote and then for four years we do not care.
The other interesting thing is the media response and I want to concentrate on one channel: the Hungarian State TV. For years now, they are struggling to get higher viewer ratings. And then finally came a once-in-a-century opportunity: the protestors go there to present their petition. This was such a rare occasion of grabbing the attention of gigantic portion of the viewers. I mean isn’t one of the most important competitive edge of a media source at this level is “you heard it first hear”. Even if they do not allow one of the protestors to read it, one of the anchors could do it. What bad would have happened if they would have read the petition? It has been widely presented by other channels in a short time. And the country did not exploded because of a short petition. If contra-protestors bring their contra-petition lets read that too. Party neutrality is NOT declining access to public attention, but to give the opportunity to all sides to respond. And this mediated conversion would have happened live, “only on” that TV channel. The short-sighted leadership of TV channel foolishly has missed to grab onto this opportunity. And they paid a terrible price: the siege and all the damage in the people, building and in valuable historical archives. An avoidable price in conclusion of an incompetent leadership decision … again.
So what’s ahead? The quick economic actions are required. There is no doubt. There are no other quick-win opportunities that to turn to tax increases and benefit restrictions. I just hope that when they planned the program they also had growth in mind in mid-term. To set out a fire we should not sacrifice THE future, but as we cannot undo past what we can do is to sacrifice part of present FOR THE future.
I think new elections would not help either. The actions to somewhat balance the budget deficit are urgent and unavoidable and new elections could possibly endanger and definitely delay that. I think resignation of the Prime Minister would also not solve too many things as I do not see any viable alternative figure in the government who could manage to do the reforms, not a single one. What I would like to see is probably trivial throughout this entry. I would like to see peace returned to Hungary. I would like to see the governmental intentions clearly for bettering the Hungarian economy. I would like to see a highly accountable country leadership structure, where they accept and face responsibilities. And I would like every politician to please STOP LYING… for at least 5 minutes please. I know I’m such and idealist.
Tags:
Protest
Hungary
Lies
Accountability
Very well said, Henrik! Az egyik legjobb kommentár, amit olvastam. Üdv Oxfordból!
Anna
Comment by Anna — October 15, 2006 @ 9:57 pm
Hi Henrik,
I stumbled across your blog, and find what you have to say interesting. In particular I noticed this point:
“So what’s ahead? The quick economic actions are required. There is no doubt. There are no other quick-win opportunities that to turn to tax increases and benefit restrictions. I just hope that when they planned the program they also had growth in mind in mid-term.”
What’s ahead is precisely the question, and you hit the nail on the head when you ask how you cut spending, increase taxes and sustain growth all at the same time.
I am a macroeconomist, and I belong to the blogging collective a Fistful of Euros which you may know. I am pretty concerned about the situation in Hungary. Quite frankly I think I have never seen a situation quite as complicated as this one.
In part you also need to think about the interest rate, which needs to be high to control inflation, but also needs to be low to let the forint drop so you can export. Really you are going to be very dependent on export lead growth.
But if the forint drops then all those people with none forint loans will really have a hard time.
No easy solution I’m afraid.
In fact I am so concerned about all of this that I have set up a small weblog called Hungary Economy Watch to follow the situation as it evolves.I have a couple of peeople inside Hungary who help me, but any pointers you can offer would be most welcome.
Essentially I am preoccupied by your ongoing demographic dynamics. You have very low fertility, and quite low life expectancy which is set to rise and rise. The issue with the latter is the pensions and health bill that needs to be paid, and just who will do the paying? You can see the battle royal that is going on with the drug companies right now.
The thing is you need children (which means a pro-natalist policy from the government, but this, as we know, costs money) and you need to be able to attract and retain immigrants.
My big worry is that you could have a major crisis sometime around the middle of next year (I agree with your sentiments on the politicians entirely) and this sends a load of young people vomiting out in search of work and money to send home to their older relatives. The impact of such a hypothetical crisis could be quite devastating on your already weakened population pyramid.
Just some thoughts. I have linked to you in my sidebar. All the best.
Comment by Edward Hugh — November 24, 2006 @ 7:58 pm
Thank you Edward for this insightful comment, it is highly appreciated!
Your fear of crisis is probably not without foundation. I think the best people in Hungary can do is to concentrate all efforts on seeing things just a little bit lighter, which is very hard nowadays indeed. We all know the economical importance of expectations…
I myself have smart, young friends how are seriously considering leaving Hungary. They are able to and because of their talent and hard working habits they could be successful anywhere. Young people such as them leaving Hungary in considerable numbers is my greates fear of all. We have seen similar events happening on the sience fields just too many times in the last century. (Only one Noble price winner with Hungarian origin produced their research and discovery in Hungary…) These people would need something to believe in to stay and I think the worst sin of all from political actors (governing or opposition does not matter) is that they put little to no effort on providing a brighter future goal for people to work for. There is no country vision and we would very much need one. People need to believe in the future goods for what they are sacrifising present opportunities for. Not a single political entity is giving them this, all are just too much sank in just-in-time political fights and problems. I wish they would be reading this…
oh.. well I already told you I’m an idealist
Comment by Henrik — November 28, 2006 @ 12:12 pm